The protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered severe humanitarian crises, notably acute food shortages. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that around 11 million Ukrainians—approximately one-third of the population—faced hunger risks in 2023. This food crisis, compounded by disruptions in global supply chains and extreme weather conditions, may contribute to a rise in diabetes cases both within Ukraine and around the world. This assertion is presented by Peter Klimek and Stefan Thurner from the Complexity Science Hub in a recent commentary published in the journal Science.
The researchers highlight that malnutrition during early pregnancy significantly elevates the risk of developing diabetes later in life. Given that 187,000 children were born in Ukraine in 2023, Klimek and Thurner project that the country’s current diabetes prevalence rate of 7.1% could lead to an additional 13,000 to 19,000 diabetes cases within this birth cohort alone.
Global Consequences
The ripple effects of disrupted food exports due to the conflict have exacerbated global hunger, pushing an estimated 23 million people into food insecurity. Considering ongoing supply chain disruptions and climate-related shocks, projections indicate that up to 122 million additional people could experience hunger compared to pre-conflict levels in 2019. The researchers warn that this could potentially result in up to 180,000 more cases of Type 2 diabetes worldwide.
Klimek and Thurner underscore that while these estimates are not precise predictions, they highlight significant, often overlooked, indirect impacts of geopolitical conflicts on public health.
Ukraine’s Role in Global Agriculture
Before the conflict, Ukraine was a major agricultural player, leading global exports in sunflower oil, and ranking fourth in corn and fifth in wheat. The loss of Ukrainian agricultural output has caused notable wheat shortages in countries such as Moldova, Libya, Lebanon, and Tunisia, which could have extensive repercussions for food products reliant on wheat.
Importance of Addressing Indirect Health Impacts
The researchers stress the need to recognize and address these indirect consequences of conflict and supply chain disruptions. “Our estimates aim to demonstrate the scale of the public health impact, prompting health authorities to identify emerging high-risk groups and adjust screening and prevention strategies for future decades,” Klimek and Thurner assert. They also call for urgent diversification of global food supply chains to reduce dependency risks.
Historical Context: Famine and Diabetes
The link between famine and diabetes is well-documented, with evidence from historical famines in the Netherlands, China, and Austria showing that early pregnancy malnutrition can significantly increase diabetes risk later in life. Recent research into the Ukrainian famine of 1932-33 has further elucidated this connection, revealing that severe malnutrition during early pregnancy can increase diabetes risk by 1.5 to 2 times.
This increased risk is attributed to metabolic changes induced by fetal exposure to poor nutrition, which prepares the body for a nutrient-scarce environment. When this environment changes, the resulting mismatch may elevate the likelihood of developing diabetes.
About Complexity Science Hub (CSH)
The Complexity Science Hub (CSH) is a premier European research center focused on complex systems. Established in 2015, CSH employs interdisciplinary approaches across economics, medicine, ecology, and social sciences to derive actionable insights from data. With over 70 researchers, CSH integrates physics, mathematics, computational modeling, and network science to address contemporary challenges in healthcare, supply chains, and beyond.
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