Published in Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome, the study was a collaborative effort between Monash University and RMIT University, led by Distinguished Professor Barbora de Courten OAM and PhD student Robel Kabthymer. The findings are expected to prompt a reevaluation of dietary strategies aimed at weight loss and diabetes prevention.
In Australia, nearly 1.3 million people are diagnosed with diabetes, a number likely underreported due to undiagnosed cases. The study utilized data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), which tracked participants aged 40 to 69 who were recruited between 1990 and 1994, with follow-ups conducted between 1995-1998 and 2003-2007.
Researchers analyzed participants’ dietary intake, particularly focusing on carbohydrate consumption and its correlation with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. They calculated a Low Carbohydrate Score (LCD), which measures the percentage of energy derived from carbohydrates compared to fats and proteins. The study found that individuals with diets consisting of 38% carbohydrates had a 20% higher risk of developing diabetes compared to those whose diets included 55% carbohydrates. The increased risk is attributed to a higher incidence of obesity associated with low-carb, high-fat diets.
Professor de Courten highlighted that this study is the first to assess the long-term impacts of low-carb diets on chronic diseases using Australian data. She explained, “While high-carbohydrate diets that are heavily processed and low in fiber can contribute to weight gain and diabetes through increased insulin resistance, previous research has mainly focused on low-carb diets for managing or remitting type 2 diabetes.”
“This study reveals that a low-carb diet may increase the long-term risk of type 2 diabetes, likely due to higher obesity rates and the consumption of fats and low-fiber foods,” she added. The research underscores the importance of not only the quantity but also the quality of carbohydrates, proteins, and fats in the diet.
The study suggests that a balanced approach, such as the Mediterranean diet—which emphasizes minimally processed carbohydrates rich in fiber, healthy fats, and sufficient protein from fish, seafood, white meat, and legumes—may be more effective in preventing type 2 diabetes.
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